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A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of the side's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Could it be another reality whereby, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
• The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital England player.

This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.